A dynamic game of lymphatic filariasis prevention by voluntary use of insecticide treated nets.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 with a goal to keep the prevalence of LF infections under the 1% threshold. While mass drug administration (MDA) is a primary strategy recommended by WHO, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) plays a crucial role as an alternative strategy when MDA cannot be used. In this paper, we use imitation dynamics to incorporate human behavior and voluntary use of ITN into the compartmental epidemiological model of LF transmission. We find the equilibrium states of the dynamics and the ITN usage as it depends on epidemiological parameters and the cost of ITNs. We investigate the conditions under which the voluntary use of ITNs can keep the LF prevalence under the 1% threshold. We found that when the cost of using the ITNs is about 105 smaller than the perceived cost of LF, then the voluntary use of ITNs will eliminate LF as a public health concern. Furthermore, when the ITNs are given away for free, our model predicts that over 80% of the population will use them which would eliminate LF completely in regions where Anopheles are the primary vectors.

Correction: Mathematical modelling and control of African animal trypanosomosis with interacting populations in West Africa-Could biting flies be important in maintaining the disease endemicity?

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242435.].

Financial losses estimation of African animal trypanosomosis in Nigeria: field reality-based model.

INTRODUCTION: Theoretical and modelling approaches were undertaken on Nigerian livestock industry to estimate financial losses due to African animal trypanosomosis. METHODS: Surveys were conducted between March 2018 and February 2019 to include focus group interactions, in-depth household engagements concerning livestock practices in relation to AAT. Financial losses estimation on livestock were targeted to provide ways to regain cost and maximize household livelihoods. Mathematical equation was developed to project the effects of intervention strategies. Important variables such as mean AAT prevalence, incidence rate, birth rate, morbidity and mortality were estimated and inserted in the model. RESULTS: Mean total income per capita was US$ 1.31 / person / day among livestock producers in Nigeria. A total of US$ 518. 9 million were estimated from direct losses, while US$ 58.8 million as indirect losses. Annual estimated losses to AAT from cattle, sheep, goat and pigs in Nigeria is US$ 577.7 million. This is equivalent to 207.98 billion Nigerian naira and represents 6.93% of annual livestock GDP in the country. This could increase to 85% in the next 50 years if there are no proper control interventions. Control efforts could reduce the losses to US$ 16.7 million at the rate of 0.2% during the same period. DISCUSSIONS: AAT has severe socioeconomic impact on producer's livelihood and urgent improved control intervention strategies should be instituted to reduce the losses attributed to the disease.

Mathematical modelling and control of African animal trypanosomosis with interacting populations in West Africa-Could biting flies be important in main taining the disease endemicity?

African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is transmitted cyclically by tsetse flies and mechanically by biting flies (tabanids and stomoxyines) in West Africa. AAT caused by Trypanosoma congolense, T. vivax and T. brucei brucei is a major threat to the cattle industry. A mathematical model involving three vertebrate hosts (cattle, small ruminants and wildlife) and three vector flies (Tsetse flies, tabanids and stomoxyines) was described to identify elimination strategies. The basic reproduction number (R0) was obtained with respect to the growth rate of infected wildlife (reservoir hosts) present around the susceptible population using a next generation matrix technique. With the aid of suitable Lyapunov functions, stability analyses of disease-free and endemic equilibria were established. Simulation of the predictive model was presented by solving the system of ordinary differential equations to explore the behaviour of the model. An operational area in southwest Nigeria was simulated using generated pertinent data. The R0 < 1 in the formulated model indicates the elimination of AAT. The comprehensive use of insecticide treated targets and insecticide treated cattle (ITT/ITC) affected the feeding tsetse and other biting flies resulting in R0 < 1. The insecticide type, application timing and method, expertise and environmental conditions could affect the model stability. In areas with abundant biting flies and no tsetse flies, T. vivax showed R0 > 1 when infected wildlife hosts were present. High tsetse populations revealed R0 <1 for T. vivax when ITT and ITC were administered, either individually or together. Elimination of the transmitting vectors of AAT could cost a total of US$ 1,056,990 in southwest Nigeria. Hence, AAT in West Africa can only be controlled by strategically applying insecticides targeting all transmitting vectors, appropriate use of trypanocides, and institutionalising an appropriate barrier between the domestic and sylvatic areas.